Natural Alternatives International Stock Volatility
| NAII Stock | USD 3.11 0.58 15.72% |
Natural Alternatives appears to be very risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Natural Alternatives has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0862, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0862 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Natural Alternatives, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise Natural Alternatives' Downside Deviation of 3.77, risk adjusted performance of 0.0966, and Mean Deviation of 3.17 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
Sharpe Ratio = 0.0862
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| Cash | Small Risk | Average Risk | High Risk | Huge Risk |
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Based on monthly moving average Natural Alternatives is performing at about 6% of its full potential. If added to a well diversified portfolio the total return can be enhanced and market risk can be reduced. You can increase risk-adjusted return of Natural Alternatives by adding it to a well-diversified portfolio.
Key indicators related to Natural Alternatives' volatility include:90 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 90 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Natural Alternatives Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Natural daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Natural's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Natural Alternatives volatility.
ESG Sustainability
While most ESG disclosures are voluntary, Natural Alternatives' sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Natural Alternatives' managers and investors.Environmental | Governance | Social |
Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Natural Alternatives at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Natural stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower their average cost per share, thereby improving the overall portfolio performance when market normalizes. Main indicators related to Natural Alternatives' market risk premium analysis include:
Beta (0.36) | Alpha 0.57 | Risk 4.75 | Sharpe Ratio 0.0862 | Expected Return 0.41 |
Moving together with Natural Stock
| 0.75 | EL | Estee Lauder Companies | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | NATR | Natures Sunshine Products | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | BFDE | Bedford Energy | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | OBYCF | Obayashi Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | TFLM | TFLM | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | ENS | Enersys Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | YLLXF | Yellow Cake plc | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | RILYL | B Riley Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | RCKY | Rocky Brands | PairCorr |
Moving against Natural Stock
| 0.67 | BRBR | Bellring Brands LLC | PairCorr |
| 0.57 | COTY | Coty Inc Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.54 | HNST | Honest Company | PairCorr |
| 0.49 | FSTF | First State Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.35 | ERHE | ERHC Energy | PairCorr |
Natural Alternatives Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Natural Alternatives' beta coefficient measures the volatility of Natural stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Natural stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Natural Alternatives's beta of -0.36 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Natural Alternatives stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Natural Alternatives International shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Natural Alternatives' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Natural Alternatives' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
| α | 0.57 | β | -0.36 | Check current 90 days Natural Alternatives correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)
Natural Alternatives Volatility and Downside Risk
Natural standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Natural Alternatives Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Natural Alternatives stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Natural Alternatives' price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Natural Alternatives' stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Natural Alternatives' volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Natural Alternatives' fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Natural Alternatives' future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Natural Alternatives' current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Natural Alternatives' to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Natural Alternatives Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Natural Alternatives Projected Return Density Against Market
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Natural Alternatives International has a beta of -0.3643 . This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Natural Alternatives are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Natural Alternatives International is likely to outperform the market.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Natural Alternatives or Personal Care Products sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Natural Alternatives' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Natural stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Natural Alternatives Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract investor attention to the company. This positive attention may impact the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Natural Alternatives Stock Risk Measures
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Natural Alternatives is 1160.5. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 22.53 and standard deviation of 4.75. The mean deviation of Natural Alternatives International is currently at 3.25. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.74
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.57 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.36 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.75 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Natural Alternatives Stock Return Volatility
Natural Alternatives historical daily return volatility represents how much of Natural Alternatives stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm inherits 4.7466% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7649% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
Related Correlations Analysis
Correlation Matchups
Over a given time period, the two securities move together when the Correlation Coefficient is positive. Conversely, the two assets move in opposite directions when the Correlation Coefficient is negative. Determining your positions' relationship to each other is valuable for analyzing and projecting your portfolio's future expected return and risk.High positive correlations
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Risk-Adjusted Indicators
There is a big difference between Natural Stock performing well and Natural Alternatives Company doing well as a business compared to the competition. There are so many exceptions to the norm that investors cannot definitively determine what's good or bad unless they analyze Natural Alternatives' multiple risk-adjusted performance indicators across the competitive landscape. These indicators are quantitative in nature and help investors forecast volatility and risk-adjusted expected returns across various positions.| Mean Deviation | Jensen Alpha | Sortino Ratio | Treynor Ratio | Semi Deviation | Expected Shortfall | Potential Upside | Value @Risk | Maximum Drawdown | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAG | 7.20 | 1.43 | 0.14 | 1.59 | 8.55 | 19.77 | 65.84 | |||
| BON | 2.54 | (0.23) | 0.00 | (0.16) | 0.00 | 7.55 | 18.75 | |||
| BEDU | 1.42 | 0.47 | 0.17 | 1.44 | 1.38 | 3.72 | 21.46 | |||
| MWYN | 3.18 | (0.35) | 0.00 | (0.13) | 0.00 | 7.50 | 29.68 | |||
| HCWC | 4.58 | (1.06) | 0.00 | (0.39) | 0.00 | 11.11 | 56.39 | |||
| MTEX | 3.00 | (0.10) | 0.00 | (0.38) | 0.00 | 5.11 | 36.78 | |||
| EDTK | 2.01 | (0.11) | 0.00 | (0.54) | 0.00 | 4.12 | 12.61 | |||
| WVVI | 2.67 | (0.25) | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 5.81 | 22.81 | |||
| PETZ | 2.07 | 0.02 | (0.01) | (0.08) | 2.61 | 4.04 | 12.06 | |||
| AFRI | 1.54 | 0.10 | 0.02 | (1.93) | 1.71 | 4.29 | 9.71 |
About Natural Alternatives Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Natural Alternatives or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Natural Alternatives may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Natural's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Natural Alternatives and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Natural Alternatives fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Selling And Marketing Expenses | 460 K | 850.1 K | |
| Market Cap | 30.1 M | 37.6 M |
Natural Alternatives' stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Natural Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Natural Alternatives' price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Natural Alternatives' volatility to invest better
Higher Natural Alternatives' stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Natural Alternatives stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Natural Alternatives stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Natural Alternatives investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Natural Alternatives' stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Natural Alternatives' stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Natural Alternatives Investment Opportunity
Natural Alternatives International has a volatility of 4.75 and is 6.25 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. 42 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Natural Alternatives. You can use Natural Alternatives International to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The stock experiences a very speculative upward sentiment. Check odds of Natural Alternatives to be traded at $2.95 in 90 days.Poor diversification
The correlation between Natural Alternatives Internati and DJI is 0.7 (i.e., Poor diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Natural Alternatives Internati and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Natural Alternatives Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Natural Alternatives' secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Natural Alternatives' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Natural Alternatives stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0966 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (1.50) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 3.17 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.23 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 3.77 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 834.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.68 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Natural Alternatives Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Natural Alternatives as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Natural Alternatives' systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Natural Alternatives' unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Natural Alternatives International.
Complementary Tools for Natural Stock analysis
When running Natural Alternatives' price analysis, check to measure Natural Alternatives' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natural Alternatives is operating at the current time. Most of Natural Alternatives' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natural Alternatives' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natural Alternatives' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natural Alternatives to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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